澳洲房产市场发展预估

2020年05月22日

来源:摩天登录国际教育服务

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在过去的二十年中,澳大利亚的住房市场只有一个发展趋势,那就是上涨。

尽管Covid-19大流行使加拿大到新加坡的房地产市场遭受重创,但澳大利亚比大多数国家更容易受到住房市场下滑的影响。它是世界上家庭债务水平最高的国家之一,该国的银行承受着抵押贷款的巨大压力,许多(没有其他工作的)母亲和跟风投资者都依赖租赁房地产的收入,而租赁房地产的收入也面临压力。

新南威尔士大学经济学教授理查德·霍尔顿(Richard Holden)说:“澳大利亚长期以来一直迷恋住宅物业。” “很多人的财产都与住宅物业联系在一起。我很担心这个现状。”

澳大利亚最大的房屋贷款银行澳大利亚联邦银行估计,在今年短暂而剧烈的经济下滑以及明年迅速复苏的情况下,到2023年3月房价将下跌11%。在长期衰退的最坏情况下,价格可能会暴跌32%。

与冠状病毒袭击之前相比,这是一个明显的逆转,当时房价回到了繁荣时期的峰值附近,在经历了21个月的低谷触底后迅速反弹。从更长远的角度来看,自本世纪初以来,房屋价值已经增长了两倍,使悉尼和墨尔本跻身于世界上最负担不起的购房地点。

然后是移民的突然枯竭,这是影响房价的主要驱动力之一,尤其是在悉尼和墨尔本,新移民趋于稳定。

在过去两年中,有470,000多名移民净移民澳大利亚。现在,随着边境的关闭,国际旅行不太可能在短期内恢复,政府预测,从7月1日开始的一年中,移民将减少85%。

汇丰控股有限公司(HSBC Holdings Plc)澳大利亚首席经济学家,前央行行长保罗•布洛瑟姆(Paul Bloxham)表示:“移民将成为推动住房市场动态的最大特征。” “摩天登录看到对自用物业的需求减弱,对出租物业的需求减弱以及对学生的物业需求减弱。”

如果房客无法支付房租,这将使他们处于不稳定的状态。虽然驱逐已被暂停六个月,但政府没有对房客的财政支持,相反,其已敦促房东和租户自己商讨减租事宜。

同时,成千上万的国际学生被困在海外,使他们的出租公寓空着,而旅游业的关闭已使AirBnB房源大量涌回市场。

他说,悉尼的租金比一年前下降了约6%,如果持续保持高的空置率,它将进一步下降。 “这对租户来说是个好消息,但对房东来说却是一场灾难。”

For the past two decades, Australia’s housing market has mostly been a one-way bet on rising prices.

While the Covid-19 pandemic has upended property markets from Canada to Singapore, Australia is more vulnerable than most to a housing slump. It has one of the world’s highest levels of household debt, the nation’s banks are heavily exposed to mortgage lending, and many mom and pop investors rely on income from rental properties, which are also under pressure.

“Australia’s had an obsession with residential property for a long time,” said Richard Holden, professor of economics at the University of New South Wales. “A lot of people have a lot of their wealth tied up in residential property. I’m pretty worried.”

Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s largest home lender, estimates that under a short, sharp economic downturn this year followed by a quick recovery next year, house prices will fall 11% by March 2023. In the worst-case scenario of a prolonged recession, prices could plunge 32%.

That’s a marked reversal from before coronavirus hit, when house prices were back near boom-time peaks, having rebounded rapidly after a 21-month slump bottomed out. Longer term, home values have tripled since the turn of the century, propelling Sydney and Melbourne into the ranks of the world’s least-affordable places to buy.

Then there’s the sudden drying up of immigration, which has been one of the key drivers of house prices, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne where new arrivals tend to settle.

On a net basis, more than 470,000 immigrants moved to Australia over the past two years. Now, with borders shut and international travel unlikely to resume anytime soon, the government is forecasting immigration will slump 85% in the year starting July 1.

“Migration is going to the biggest feature of what drives housing market dynamics,” said Paul Bloxham, chief economist for Australia at HSBC Holdings Plc, and a former central bank official. “We see weaker demand for owner-occupied property, weaker demand for rental property and weaker demand for property for students.”

That leaves them in a precarious position if tenants can’t pay rent. While evictions have been suspended for six months, there is no financial support for renters, and instead the government has urged landlords and tenants to negotiate rent breaks themselves.

Meantime, tens of thousands of international students are stranded overseas, leaving their rental apartments empty, while the shuttering of tourism has seen AirBnB units flood back to the market.

Rents in Sydney have fallen about 6% from a year ago, and will decline further if high vacancy rates are sustained, he said. “That’s good news for tenants but a disaster for landlords.”

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